Whenever there is a downturn in the the United States economy investors are prompted to make flight to economic safety. This is typically done by abandoning stocks and options and placing a disproportionate amount of focus on precious metals, particularly gold. Whether investors purchase gold bullion or gold numismatics, the level of interest in gold increases dramatically. The real question is can gold's current valuation sustain itself or are have today's investors been setup for failure?
In January of 1980 gold hit a record high of $850/ounce. Now, almost three decades later, it finally reaches that price level again and is currently staying there. Gold Bugs, investors that love buying gold, contend that when adjusting for inflation, the price of the 1980 gold would have actually been around $2,000/ounce. This has lead many to falsely believe that gold values will not only exceed the former 1980 high, but set new records by eventually reaching $2,000/ounce to reflect the inflation adjusted pricing. This will most likely not be the case.
While on the surface the inflation argument seems sound there are three factors at work; gold's current move up in price, the true weakness of the U.S. economy, and trader psychology. Let's tackle the first one, gold's move up in price. In the summer of 1999 gold plummeted to an all time low of $251.70. Within the last decade, with many bumpy roads along the way, gold has more than tripled in value breaking the former 1980 high of $850 due to a weak dollar, rising oil demand, and a decline in banks holding gold in reserve. If anyone of these factors were to change significantly then gold's economic strength would diminish quickly.
This leads us to the second point, the true weakness of the U.S. economy. With the U.S. government spending trillions of dollars, directly or indirectly into the economy, while at the same time promoting new enterprises in green technology can the dollar's resurgence be too far off? The strength of currencies are strictly based on relativity, both relative strength and relative weakness. If the U.S. , because of its aggressive economic actions, is seen as the strongest of the weak then the value of the dollar will not only stabilize, but increase in. Couple a stronger dollar with the continued war on foreign oil dependence then gold once again loses its luster as an investment and slowly slips back into obscurity, regardless of what the inflation adjusted price should be.
Which brings us to the final problem, trader psychology. Traders tend to be the most superstitious group when it comes to numbers. The price of $850/ounce, set in 1980, has been both a liberator for gold and an albatross around its neck for price growth. On the one hand it set a target for how high the price of gold could be driven, but on the other hand this target has become a comfortable number that the majority of traders do not feel too comfortable getting a way from, lest the market reaches new heights and collapses leaving them holding the bag like it did to so many gold bugs that bought at the top of the market in the 1980's.
It is difficult to make a concrete decision on how gold should be approached from an investor's stand point at its current price levels. It holds the unenviable position of being treated as both a default currency and it has a utility value that is significantly impacted by supply and demand. To be successful a practical approach needs to be taken to the true price action of gold and not what we would hope the price could be like. Therefore buying gold at these levels during these economic changes makes it a dud.
A few ways to participate in gold:
Gold Exchange Traded Funds (GETFs) was introduced as an inexpensive alternative to owning physical gold or buying gold futures. They have become widely accepted by investors as an easier way to buy gold.
Gold futures and options let investors use leverage to buy gold. Investors are able to buy and sell gold at a fraction of its bullion value, while still reaping the benefits of the full bullion value.
Gold bullion and numismatics are another way to purchase gold. Unfortunately, because of dealer bid/ask spreads, insurance, and a collector value sometimes placed on physical gold it can be difficult to really determine what the true value of your physical gold is if you had to sell it.
Noble DraKoln, Author of the best-selling book "Futures For Small Speculators" is unique in the world of investments. He focuses on the world of futures, commodities, and options and gives everyday investors the tools they need to succeed against the demons of "Fear and Greed". For the past 11 years he has been a futures investor, broker, and author. So he understands and is capable of explaining this risky investment from both sides of the fence. He is also the author of three books: "Futures For Small Speculators", "Futures For Small Speculators: Companion Guide" and "Single Stock Futures For Small Speculators". All three of these books are available on Amazon.com or barnesandnoble.com. You can also subscribe to Noble DraKoln's FREE weekly Ezine, “Futures For Small Speculators"! Simply visit www.liverpoolgroup.com
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